From Worldview - RANE (Risk Assessment Network + Exchange)

 

 Senegal’s 2024 Election Could Threaten One of West Africa's Most Stable Democracies

April 24, 202

 In Senegal, mobilization of the opposition and the outcomes of ongoing legal battles could trigger massive unrest and — in an extreme scenario — a constitutional crisis that could plunge the historically stable country into violence. More than one hundred political and civil society groups in Senegal formed a coalition on April 16 to oppose a third term for President Macky Sall. The coalition is called the F24 Movement of Vital Forces and is coordinated by Mamadou Mbodj, a long-standing member of the Senegalese opposition. Ousmane Sonko, the leading opposition candidate for the February 2024 presidential election and the subject of two ongoing criminal trials, was among those who attended the coalition's launch.

 

• The F24 is meant to evoke commonalities with the June 23 Movement, or M23, that fought against a third term for former President Abdoulaye Wade in 2011-2. Senegal's constitutional court approved Wade's bid to run for a third term, but large-scale protests erupted, and Wade eventually lost the presidential election to Sall in 2012. 
• In addition to condemning Sall's ambiguity on a third term, F24 is also calling for the release of political detainees who were arrested during demonstrations related to Sonko's ongoing defamation case.
•  Sonko was convicted of defamation for comments he made in 2022 about the Senegalese tourism minister on March 30. He received a sentence of two months in prison and a fine of 200 million CFA francs (about $334,000). While the ruling will not bar Sonko from contesting the presidency, Mame Mbaye Niang, the minister of tourism who has accused Sonko of defamation, appealed the judgment and is seeking a harsher sentence, which is scheduled to be heard on May 8. Sonko faces a separate trial process for allegedly raping a beauty salon employee in 2021. In both cases, Sonko denies any wrongdoing; he and his supporters have persistently characterized the accusations as trumped-up, politically motivated charges intended to bar him from seeking the presidency
•  For the first time in Senegalese history, the president's party does not have a majority in parliament after July 31 2022 legislative elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition coalition. 

The opposition's move is a reaction to Sall's ambiguity about whether or not he will seek a third term, which his opponents consider illegal. On March 20, Sall remarked that running for a third term would not violate the Senegalese Constitution, as the amendment that limits presidential tenure to two five-year terms was passed after his first term had begun. Earlier that month, Sall told journalists he was delaying his decision regarding whether to run in the February 2024 election to prevent political dysfunction. It remains unclear exactly when Sall will announce his intentions, but opponents have already announced their candidacies in opposition to Sall's Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS). The PDS has become increasingly repressive in recent months, refusing to grant permits for political demonstrations, arresting journalists and opposition leaders, and cracking down on political demonstrations. In addition to Sall's recent comments, these actions have fueled rumors that Sall is preparing to break with Senegal's relatively stable democratic system to extend his tenure.

• Senegal is one of the few West African countries that has not experienced a coup since gaining independence from France in 1960 and is broadly considered to have a relatively stable democracy.

Sonko's trial dates will likely trigger even greater demonstrations of resistance against the government, whereas indications that Sall intends to seek a third term could prompt a constitutional crisis. The semi-frequent opposition demonstrations that have brought Dakar and other Senegalese cities to a standstill over the last few years are likely to increase in cadence as the election nears, tensions continue to heighten and Sonko's trials proceed. If Sonko is sentenced to more than three months in prison during the defamation appeal trial or the rape trial, he will be ineligible to run for president, which would very likely lead to widespread violent unrest in the capital and smaller cities throughout the country. Meanwhile, Sall's candidacy also has the potential to trigger intense unrest and a constitutional crisis in one of West Africa's historically most stable countries. The questionable transparency of Senegalese courts means that Sall could receive judicial approval to amend the constitution to allow for three presidential terms and/or extended tenure. However, based on his previous statements that a third term would not be unconstitutional, it seems more likely that he would not pursue constitutional reform, instead skirting the question of legality and using police and security forces to suppress the opposition. This would likely spark a full-blown national crisis and create a longer-term domestic debate about the integrity of the Senegalese Constitution, which future governments may seek to amend to tighten perceived loopholes. Even if Sall does pursue another term and employs repressive measures, he is not guaranteed to win, as support for the opposition has been on the rise in response to what many Senegalese view as government abuses of power.

• The F24 invited members to mobilize on May 12 against the "unconstitutional candidacy of Macky Sall," which means that clashes between opposition demonstrators and police can be expected. 
• Even if Sall does not seek a third term, clashes and unrest are expected ahead of the election, given the Senegalese police forces' propensity to crack down on opposition demonstrations. 
• Every time Sonko is summoned to court, the government suspends traffic on the Dakar Dem Dikk bus service, bans the use of scooters and motorcycles, closes schools, and barricades opposition party officials into their homes.